That most predictions are wrong and that prevention, robustness and adaptability is way more important. I can’t help myself – I have to add one thing about the people who give out predictions on all kinds of things. Often these are the people who live in a world where their actions have no consequences and where their ideas and theories don’t have to agree with reality....“You only have to be right on a very, very few things in your lifetime as long as you never make any big mistakes…An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.”

Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”

Gresham’s Law

This can be common in some business fields. Take two drug salespeople – one willing to bribe doctors in order to make sales, and one not willing to do so. If the industry functions such that fraudulent business practices are not punished, and the bribery goes uncovered by the buyer’s organization, then bribery obviously gains a sustainable competitive advantage over non-bribery. Clearly, the deceptive practice will take hold, as salespeople unburdened by morals are promoted and compensated better than the high-roaders. It’s a clear form of Gresham’s Law. When bad behavior has taken root, and that bad behavior has a “survival advantage” against good behavior, it becomes difficult, and occasionally impossible, to drive out the bad behavior; a process akin to natural selection.

Walking the Dog

Sometimes I take the dog out for a walk. She drags me tree to tree, and post to post wanting to stop and sniff each for dog knows what. Sometimes for entertainment I pause and let her sniff to her delight just to see if she will ever get her fill and decide to move on on her own, but usually her delight outlasts my impatience. Then there are those times that I stop to observe a particular bird, or butterfly, or flower, maybe even just a glimmer of light, but of course, she has no patience for that, and pulls me away to the next awaiting tree or post to be thoroughly explored all over again. I am still not certain whether it is history that interests her, or current events. The thing I have noticed is that dogs almost never have a macro view of the world. Instead they are almost always focused on the micro world that is most immediately in front of them or should I say in front of their noses. Sometimes I think it is a great advantage not to look so far out. After a while the dog and I get distracted by just the walking and we develop a rhythm where we each keep to ourselves as we focus only on the path we walk. It is in moments just as these that I begin to understand a little more the pleasure of the dog taking me out for a walk.

Death

Once you actually begin to die and you experience death, you no longer fear death. Then you can really start to live. When you watch someone die and you watch them let go of everything. They let go of all their possessions, all of their financial security, all of their hopes and dreams, all of their material attachments and even their ego. Finally, they even have to let go of their loved ones. Once they have done that, then they are free to go and there is nothing left to fear. You realize it is not into an abyss that you go, but an abyss you that come from.

Spirit is like zero - it is not divisible, and they only thing that is real is zero. All of the other numbers are illusions of things added unto each other, or subtracted from, or even multiplied or divided. They can never stand onto themselves. All that is left is zero and it alone stands onto itself. It can never be multiplied or divided. You cannot subtract from it and end up with anything other than a negation of itself. You cannot add onto it and end up with anything more than that which is added. The spirit always stands onto itself unchanged.

Spirit is like zero - it is indivisible.
It alone stands onto itself
it cannot be multiplied, nor divided
if you add to it, you are left only with whatever was added
if you subtract from it, then you end with the negation of that which is added.

D.T. Suzuki

Generally, we are blind to this fact, that we are in possession of all the necessary faculties that will make us happy and loving towards one another. All the struggles that we see around us come from this ignorance… When the cloud of ignorance disappears… we see for the first time into the nature of our own being.
Life is after all a form of affirmation… However insistently the blind may deny the existence of the sun, they cannot annihilate it.

The nature of one’s own being where apparently rages the struggle between the finite and the infinite is to be grasped by a higher faculty than the intellect… For the intellect has a peculiarly disquieting quality in it. Though it raises questions enough to disturb the serenity of the mind, it is too frequently unable to give satisfactory answers to them. It upsets the blissful peace of ignorance and yet it does not restore the former state of things by offering something else. Because it points out ignorance, it is often considered illuminating, whereas the fact is that it disturbs, not necessarily always bringing light on its path.

But when it comes to the question of life itself we cannot wait for the ultimate solution to be offered by the intellect, even if it could do so. We cannot suspend even for a moment our life-activity for philosophy to unravel its mysteries. Let the mysteries remain as they are, but live we must… Zen therefore does not rely on the intellect for the solution of its deepest problems.

Let the intellect alone, it has its usefulness in its proper sphere, but let it not interfere with the flowing of the life-stream. If you are at all tempted to look into it, do so while letting it flow. The fact of flowing must under no circumstances be arrested or meddled with…

No amount of wordy explanations will ever lead us into the nature of our own selves. The more you explain, the further it runs away from you. It is like trying to get hold of your own shadow.

The ultimate standpoint of Zen, therefore, is that we have been led astray through ignorance to find a split in our own being, that there was from the very beginning no need for a struggle between the finite and the infinite, that the peace we are seeking so eagerly after has been there all the time.

We are all finite, we cannot live out of time and space; inasmuch as we are earth-created, there is no way to grasp the infinite, how can we deliver ourselves from the limitations of existence? … Salvation must be sought in the finite itself, there is nothing infinite apart from finite things; if you seek something transcendental, that will cut you off from this world of relativity, which is the same thing as the annihilation of yourself. You do not want salvation at the cost of your own existence… Whether you understand or not, just the same go on living in the finite, with the finite; for you die if you stop eating and keeping yourself warm on account of your aspiration for the infinite… Therefore the finite is the infinite, and vice versa. These are not two separate things, though we are compelled to conceive them so, intellectually.

The Tin Drum - Gunter Grass

...if you begin by saying that a novel can't have a hero any more because there are no more individualists, because individuality is a thing of the past, because man - each man and all men together - is alone in his loneliness, and all men lumped together make up a "lonely mass' without names and without heroes."

Rainer Maria Rilke

Second Elegy

But we, when moved by deep feeling, evaporate; we
breathe ourselves out and away; from moment to moment
our emotion grows fainter, like a perfume. Though someone may tell us;
" Yes, you've entered my bloodstream, the room, the whole springtime
is filled with you..." - what does it matter? he can't contain us,
we vanish inside him and around him. And those who are beautiful,
oh  who can retain them? Appearance ceaselessly rises
in their face, and is gone. Like dew from the morning grass,
what is ours floats into the air, like steam from a dish
of hot food. O smile, where are you going? O upturned glance;
new warm receding wave on the sea of the heart...
alas, but that is what we are. Does the infinite space
we dissolve into, taste of us then?

First Elegy

Yes - the springtimes needed you. Often a star
was waiting for you to notice it. A wave rolled toward you
out of the distant past, or as you walked
under an open window, a violin
yielded itself to your hearing. All this was mission.
But could you accomplish it? Weren't you always
distracted by expectation, as if every event
announced a beloved?

Of course, it is strange to inhabit the earth no longer,
To give up customs one barely had time to learn,
Not to see roses and other promising Things
In terms of a human future; no longer to be
What one was in infinitely anxious hands; to leave
Even one’s own first name behind, forgetting it
as easily as a child abandons a broken toy.
Strange to no longer desire one’s desires. Strange
to see meanings that clung together once, floating away
in every direction. And being dead is hard work
and full of retrieval before one can gradually feel
a trace of eternity. — Though the living are wrong to believe
in the too-sharp distinctions which they themselves have created.
Angels (they say) don’t know whether it is the living
they are moving among, or the dead. The eternal torrent
whirls all ages along in it, through both realms
forever, and their voices are drowned out in its thunderous roar.

It made me feel, on the one hand, that Rilke was a very great poet, that he had gone deeper than almost any poet of his age and stayed there longer, and I felt, on the other hand, a sudden restless revulsion from the whole tradition of nineteenth - and early- twentieth-century poetry, or maybe from lyric poetry as such, because it seemed, finally, to have only one subject, the self, and the self - which is not life; we know this because it is what in us humans stands outside natural processes and says, "That's life over there" - had one subject, the fact that it was not life and must, therefore, be death, or if not death, death's bride, or if not death's bride, its lover and secret.

And dying - to let go, no longer feel
the solid ground we stand on every day -
is like his anxious letting himself fall

into the water, which receives him gently
and which, as though with reverence and joy,
draws back past him in streams on either side;
while, infinitely silent and aware,
in his full majesty and ever more
indifferent, he condescends to glide.

from The Swan

In you, who were a child once - in you
from the The Grownup